Philosophy of the Day


ThinkExist Dynamic daily quotation

Sunday 27 April 2008

Feelings of Regret over RBS?

I have to say I was wrong over Royal Bank of Scotland. I own some stock and supported them through the ABN.Amro acquisition. More recently I could see capital was very tight but I thought they would fight and manage to squeak through, making disposals where necessary, rather than do a u-turn on previous commitments and raise more capital, a huge embarrassment for CEO Sir Fred Goodwin. But with £5.9bn more write-offs the company probably had no choice and so launched a massive £12bn deeply discounted Rights Issue. As it turned out the capital raise was so well anticipated that the effect on the share price when it was announced was actually slightly positive. The company has now come clean and with a stronger capital base plus the option of disposals, will be better placed to move forward rather than the alternative of trying to fight with its back to the wall. Other banks may yet need to come to the market and RBS has the advantage of being first in the queue.

So I whilst was wrong about the capital situation, I was right in that the shares had recently fallen so low that almost every possible piece of bad news was already in the price. Ultimately I think the ABN acquisition will be good for RBS and create a stronger business. Whether or not it will create any shareholder value remains questionable.

No comments: