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Friday 23 November 2007

Intermediate but not Boring

Today Intermediate Capital Group reported their half year figures. Given the current investment climate results were outstanding with continuing strong capital gains, 24% increase in core income and 33% growth in PBT assisted by a significant write back of provisions. It should be pointed out that the trading period covered mostly relates to the period before the contraction in the debt markets which happened in September and the outlook is less robust, but unsurprisingly the market reaction was very positive. ICG has for some time been wary of the credit bubble and avoided expanding too aggressively other than by geography. Now with plenty of funding, ICG is well placed to take advantage of the current conditions leading to more creditor friendly structures, prices and terms. However long term growth is very dependent upon the overall growth in the private equity market and that is currently constrained by availability of debt. Sources tell me LBOs are being put together but there is no bank underwriting and banks will only sign up to their final take appetite, if necessary as part of a "club". Apart from a nominal holding I sold out of ICG earlier this year near the all time high. This is a good business with a very thorough long term investment process and deeply embedded credit culture but there are risks and I see less upside. http://www.icgplc.com/

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